The market has encountered difficulties this week, with Friday’s session nearing and the much-anticipated PCE inflation report coming up. Both the Spyder Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust are down 0.90% for the week. Both have seen a drop over the last three days, leading to some traders feeling unsettled. Thursday’s survey indicated that the bullish percentage held firm at 41.7%, whereas the bearish percentage experienced a decline, falling to 39.2% from 42.2% the week before.
The daily chart of the Trust shows three consecutive lower closes as the rising 20-day EMA at $654.49 faces scrutiny. The daily starc-band support is positioned around the 650 mark. The pivot for September stands at 636.18, while the preliminary October pivot is positioned around the 652 mark. Significant support is noted at 607, as shown by line a, along with the peak from February 2025. On Monday, the September R2 resistance level of 666.28 was surpassed, reaching a high of 667.34. The advance/decline line for the S&P 500 concluded Thursday’s trading beneath its EMA, signaling a transition into corrective mode. Initial support at line c has been set, with stronger support at line d. A strong rally of 1-2% could drive the A/D line back above its EMA, particularly as both the weekly and monthly A/D lines are presently in positive territory.
The sentiment from the AAII data reached historic lows, falling below -30, aligning with the SPY’s bottoming phase from March to May. This indicator was emphasized earlier this year as “it reached -51.4% on March 5, 2009, marking the lowest reading since the recession of 1990 when it hit -54%.” The increase to 2.5% from under -20 matches my predictions for a shift toward the +20 range before we experience a more substantial adjustment. The cryptocurrency has established higher highs in 2025, testing the yearly R1 resistance at 124,723 in August before retreating to the 20-week EMA, currently positioned at 109,559. The weekly starc-band is at 97,565, and the yearly pivot is at 81,742, aligning with the uptrend lined. As the cryptocurrency reached its peak in August, the MACDs and the MACD-His both exhibited lower highs, indicated by lines b and c. Both indicators shifted to a negative stance at the close of August, affirming the divergence.
The bearish divergence noted in the MACDs acts as a compelling signal, indicating the possibility of a more substantial drop in BTCUSD. The market is experiencing an uptick early Friday in response to the PCE inflation report; however, there has been a decline of 5% this week to date. Given the weekly bearish divergences, a rebound is anticipated to face challenges within the 111,000-113,000 range.