Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain metrics are indicating a significant trend, as the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio has dropped to 0.82. This level has historically been linked to market stress and capitulation, as reported by Glassnode data.
This metric evaluates the relationship between the market value, represented by the current Bitcoin price, and the realized price, which reflects the average cost basis of coins held by short-term holders. The STH MVRV value falling below 1.0 suggests that recent purchasers are, on average, experiencing unrealized losses, placing them in an underwater position. With a value of 0.82, short-term holders are facing an average decline of approximately 18%, indicating that a considerable number are enduring substantial losses.
This level closely resembles earlier MVRV cycle lows: 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022, both of which were followed by market bottoms and trend reversals.
Historically, significant MVRV drawdowns have indicated moments when less experienced investors exit the market, allowing savvy investors to accumulate assets.
Recent data from Glassnode indicates that since February, long-term holders—defined as those maintaining their investments for 155 days or more—have expanded their cohort supply by roughly 500,000 BTC.
In a notable development, short-term holders have offloaded more than 300,000 BTC, influenced by a combination of profit-taking strategies and capitulation events. The current market dynamics reveal that long-term holders are acquiring Bitcoin at a greater rate than short-term holders are liquidating their positions.